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I got a lot of blowback for my first prediction that end-to-end generative AI content will fail in 2025 in my DMs (read it here if you haven’t yet).

I think this one will get a lot more.

Let’s dive in.

2025 Creator Economy Prediction #2

TikTok Will Be Live in the US by the Holidays in 2025

But wait…it’s already a done deal that TikTok is getting shut down, right?

January 19 is right around the corner, and short of a Supreme Court ruling or a 25th-hour acquisition of TikTok US by a US entity, the app will be forced to cease operations in the US.

So, in what universe would I believe TikTok is going to survive?

Two words: Donald Trump.

It’s funny to me that people are still talking about norms and processes when it comes to the TikTok ban.

I think America is way past the ‘norms and processes’ phase of governance.

This isn’t me acting as a liberal or conservative (I like to think my views are more complex than that); this is someone who has followed Trump’s career, from Howard Stern in the 1990s to ‘The Apprentice’ in the 2000s to his presidency and campaigns.

He doesn’t care about norms and processes.

He cares about two things above all else: his personal brand/businesses and being liked by people.

Look at the pardons he’s offering for the January 6 rioters. Hundreds of police officers were assaulted, and five people died, including one police officer. He’s said he will pardon all of them on day one. Why? Because they are his fans.

He also values loyalty above credentials. Actually, ‘values’ isn’t the right word. He demands it.

Recently, Elon Musk threatened to pay the money to primary any Republican that doesn’t ‘fall in line’ with Trump’s agenda.

And part of Trump’s agenda has been saving TikTok.

Come January 20, there will be conservative majorities in the White House, the Supreme Court, the House, and the Senate.

They all know the risk of going head-to-head against Trump’s demands. It can be career-ending.

Just ask Liz Cheney.

And right now, Trump is averaging 10 million views per video to his 14.7 million fans on his TikTok profile. Many of his Rogan clips went massively viral, as did his multiple other popular podcast appearances. By all accounts, if the Chinese government is putting its thumb on the TikTok algorithm, it appears to be in Trump’s favor.

The Republican party is having a long-awaited moment where social media appears to be heavily in their favor. Maybe not by total creators, but certainly the most influential: Elon Musk, the Paul brothers, the Nelk boys, Rogan.

And for Trump to allow TikTok to go away would mean losing billions of views that are making Gen Z far more conservative than initially predicted.

So, again, when I read about the legal ‘paths forward’ for TikTok, I can’t help but chuckle.

I imagine the app getting delisted on January 19, having Trump take power on January 20th, announcing the app is no longer banned, and that will be that.

Even if there is a lengthy legal process, I don’t see anyone along the way that will challenge Trump’s will to retain one of his most potent social platforms while becoming a hero to a generation that’s his to lose.

And if the pressure is simply too great to ban the app from Conservatives in Congress (which, again, I don’t think will happen), there have not only been credible buyers raising funds to cover the cost, but Elon may make a play for it.

Even without the FYP algorithm (what China is most vehemently trying to protect), we live in an attention economy, and that attention is exceptionally hard to replicate.

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Thank you for reading and stay tuned through December for more 2025 predictions! If you enjoyed this edition, give it a share and if you get someone to sign up, I’ll send you my ‘10 Rep-Friendly Ways to Monetize Today!’ deck!

Until next time, protect yo rep.